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ICFC 1996
PROGRAM OUTLINE
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Tuesday, April 16
1:00 - 2:30 Tutorial: Forecasting the Impact of Wireless on Wireline Services
Larry Vanston, Ph.D. - Technology Future, Inc.
Introduction: Peter Chung - GTE
3:00 - 4:30 Tutorial: Use of Agent-Based Models of Competitive Dynamics in Telecommunications
Winslow Farrell, Coopers & Lybrand
Introduction: Peter Chung - GTE
Wednesday, April 17
8:30 - 10:00 Plenary Session: Dr. Alfred Kahn
Deregulation and Competition in the Telecom Industry
NERA
10:35 - 12:20 Plenary Session: Dr. Alan Pearce
Telecom Act of 1996 and the Future of the Telecom Industry
President, Information Age Economics
2:00 - 3:00 Concurrent Sessions: 2 papers
Issues on Wireless Evolution
Chair: Barry Joyce - Bell South
Wireless Communications and Technology Substitution: What S-Curve Reveals about Pending Cellular Competition
James Shaw, Ph.D. Director, Applied Economics Program
University of San Francisco
PCS in Peril: The Price of Complacency
Ray W. Nettleton, Ph.D.
President, NettWork Consulting, LLC
International Toll
Chair: Chris Dineen - Bell Canada
Modeling Toll Demand in a Competitive Environment
Mohammed B. Abrar & Chris Dineen, Bell Canada
A Model of Spain-Europe Telecommunications
Teresa Garin-Munoz, Teodosio Perez-Amaral
Universidad Nacional de Ecucacion a Distancia, Spain
Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain
Forecasting with Real Time Data
Chair: Wayne White - GTE
Real Time Switch Capacity Information along with Current Customer Usage Trends Make for Expert Forecasting in Today's Dynamic Environment
David Brogdon, Bearcreek Technology
Daily Traffic Analysis and Seasonal Adjustment
Steve Guo, Sprint Long Distance Division
Enhanced Services
Chair: Trent Appelbe - Bell Canada
An Econometric Demand Model of Non Published Number Messaging
Anderson Reynolds, SBC Communications
Cross-sectional Analysis of Subscription to Call Waiting in Canada using 1992 Data
D.L.Solvason, Bell Canada
3:30 - 4:30 Concurrent Sessions: 2 papers
Model Specifications
Chair: Farhad Sabetan - Pacific Telesis
A Common Probit/Random Utility Framework for Conjoint Experiment: Formulation, Efficient Estimation, and Inference
Greg Duncan, NERA
LATA Toll Price Elasticity Estimators: Non-Parametric Methods
Armando Levy, University of California, Berkeley
International Toll
Chair: Loreto Thompson - SNET
Competition and the Regionalization of Tele-communications Demand
Michael Berlage
An Alternative to Multiple Regression Methods II: Elasticities Estimation
Nelson Alvarez, Telefonica, Spain
New Forecasting Technique
Chair: Bruce McGrory - NYNEX
Best Forecasting Practices and Benchmarks
Geof Wyght
SRCI
Local Competition
Chair: Kent Bjornstad - Bell Atlantic
Criterion Based Cluster Analysis and Segmented Forecasting
Gary Sakihara, GTE Telops
Customer Switching Behavior: Local Competition
Brian Staihr, Sprint Local Division
Thursday, April 18
10:15 - 11:45 Concurrent Sessions: 3 papers
Issues on Wireless Evolution
Chair: Trent Appelbe - Bell CANADA
Discrete Choice Analysis for Multi-Attribute Products and Services: A PCS Case Study
Terry J. Atherton, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
Moshe Ben-Akiva, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Forecasting Demand for Mobile Communications in Simultaneous Equations Framework
Seung Hee Choi
Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute
A PC-based Strategic Planning System, "Prophet Point"
Steve Egge
Regulated Industries Director
EQUIFAX, NDS
Additional Residential Access Lines
Chair: Bruce Williamson - SBC
Telephone Subscribership and Employment: A Simultaneous Probit Model
Emily Hoffnar, Federal Communications Commission
Michael Green, University of North Texas
Empirical Investigation of Household Multiple Phone Line Demand
Daniel Tantum
AT&T
Cross-sectional Analysis of Residential Telephone Subscription and Additional Line Subscription in Canada using 1994 Data
D.L.Solvason
Associate Director - Demand Analysis (Local)
Bell Canada
CA Toll Demand
Chair: Bob Jacob - SPRINT
Effects of Large Price Reduction on Toll and Carrier Access Demand
Tim Tardiff
NERA
Modeling Toll Demand in a Competitive Environment: A Case Study of California
Paul Rappoport, Temple University
Lester Taylor, University of Arizona
Don Kridel, University of Missouri, St. Louis
Bill Newman, PNR and Associates
LATA Toll Demand Modeling: Parametric and Non-Parametric Statistical Techniques
Erik Heitfield, University of California-Berkeley
New Forecasting Technique
Chair: Ron Luginbill - Ameritech
Adaptive Forecasts for the Communications Industry
D.H. Phillips, Electrical Engineering Department
The University of North Carolina at Charlotte
Competitive Intelligence into Forecasts: the Relevance of Data Fusion and Posture Assessment Modeling
Paul Caldwell, CEO
PSYTEP
Market Analysis and Demand Forecasting using Neural Net Technology
Dr. Richard Hoptroff
President - Right Information Systems
11:45 - 12:15 Concurrent Sessions: 1 paper
GDP Data Revisions
Chair: Rod Richardson - U.S. West
Gross Domestic Products Revisions: What Have They Done to Our Statistics
David K. Pitcher
Corporate Economist - Bell Atlantic
Communication Fraud Perpetrator
Chair: Dean Jauchius - Bellcore
The Loyal Dark Side of Your Customer Base: the Fraud Perpetrator
Virginia Ferrara
Bellcore
Demand for Emerging Market Countries
Chair: Chris Dineen - Bell CANADA
Assessing Demand Forecasts for Emerging Market Countries
Peter J. Macaulay
Deloitte & Touche, Canada
2:00 - 3:00 Concurrent Sessions: 2 papers
Issues on Wireless Evolution
Chair: Bruce Williamson - SBC
Statistical Regressions among Dynamic Simulation Scenarios in Wireless Markets
Stephen Maloney
Devonrue LTD
The Demand for Cellular Phone and Cellular Calls
Bill Newman, PNR & Associates,
Paul Rappoport, Temple University
Lester Talyor, University of Arizona
Post Telecom Reform: Issues & Forecasting
Chair: Dean Jauchius - Bellcore
Competitive Telecommunications and Its Aftermath: Economic Policy Issues and Modeling Needs
Andy Banerjee
NERA
Revenue-Based Capacity Management in Telecommunications
Randall S. Stanislav, Bellcore
Douglas A. Gray, Sabre Decision Technologies
Consumer & Marketing Strategy
Chair: Kent Bjornstad - Bell Atlantic
Advertising and Marketing Strategies of Telecommunications Firms
Sandra D. Rhue, Consultant - Rate Planning and Analysis
Bellcore
Telecom Technology Acceptance and Aversion: an End User Perspective
Carl E. Batt, Principal Market Research Consultant
Bellcore
Local Competition
Chair: Rod Richardson - U S West
Local Competititve Cost Structure
Lawrence J. Cataldo, Laurie C. Spiegel, Frank J. Szczurek
All from Bellcore
The Implications of Cross-Industry Competition: A Comparison of IXC and LEC Positioning versus Electric Utilities
Kerry Diehl, PNR & Associates
3:30 - 4:30 Concurrent Sessions: 2 papers
New Products and Choices
Chair: Farhad Sabetan - Pacific Telesis
Estimating Long-run Telephone and Cable TV Demand in Chile: A Multinomial Logit Approach
John S. Watters, Phillp K. Clark, Basile P. Goungetas,
all from SBC Communications
The Two-way Interactive Digital Messaging System
Ted Tarr, EON Corp.
Market Assessment Tools
Chair: Tony Parrish - SBC
Finding Demand and Response Truth in Forecasts of New Telecommunications Products
Susan Higgins & Rob Arnett
The M/A/R/C Group
Predicting the Diffusion Path of a New Service via NEWSMART
Siddhartha R. Dalal, Yu Yun Ho & Robert P. Sherman
All from Bellcore
Competitive Simulation Games
Chair: Bruce McGrory - NYNEX
And the Winner Is?: Simulation and War Gaming to Create Winning Competitive Strategies
Devereaux G. Dion
Advanced Competitive Strategies, Inc.
An Analysis of Resale in Telecommunications
William E. Taylor, Timothy J. Tardiff, J. Douglas Zona
NERA
Local Competition
Chair: Bob Jacob - SPRINT
One -Stop Shopping for Communications Services- Research Method and Design
John Colias
The M/A/R/C/ Group
An Approach to Analyze a Wholesale Strategy
Michael N. Murphy & Juan Carlos Ortiz, Bellcore
Friday, April 19
8:15 - 9:45 Plenary Session: Dr. Peter Huber
10:30 - 12:00 Tutorial: Forecasting Techniques
Dr. Oral Capps, Texas A & M University
Introduction: Peter Chung - GTE
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