 |
|||||
|
ICFC 1997
Agenda with Paper Titles
|
|
|
June 24 (TUESDAY)
12:00PM to 6:00PM REGISTRATION 6:30PM - 8:30PM RECEPTION & DINNER
June 25 (WEDNESDAY)
8:15AM - 8:20AM OPENING REMARKS by Farhad Sabetan, Pacific Bell 8:30AM - 10:00AM KEY NOTE SPEECH - "The Road to Local Competition: Opportunities and Risks" Dr. William E. Taylor, Senior Vice President, National Economic Research Associates, Inc.
10:30AM - 12:00 Noon CONCURRENT SESSIONS Session 1A Chair: Peter Chung, GTE
Session Title: PRICE CAPS AND LOCAL COMPETITION 3 The Road to Price Caps in Canada
Chris Dineen - Bell Canada
17 Local Telecommunications Competition: What Is It and Will We Get It? [Word] [PDF]
Willie Grieve, Barrister and Solicitor
Stanford L. Levin, Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville
44 Regulatory Dynamics In The Changing Telecommunications Sector From The Regulatory Point Of View [Word] [PDF]
Tuula Broman-Saaristo, Ministry of Transport & Communications of Finland
Session 1B Chair: Ron Luginbill, Ameritech
Session Title: USING FORECSASTING FOR DECISION MAKING, WORKLOAD PLANNING, AND PROVISIONING 18 Alternative Futures: Forecasting for Business Decision Making [PowerPoint] [PDF]
Alan M. Gross, Bellcore
34 Characterizing a Fast-Changing Workload in a Telephone Order System: A Case Study
Neale Hirsh, Bell Atlantic
35 Hi Tech To Nuts & Bolts Of Forecasting Problems
Right Answers Require A Range Of Mix & Match
Donald B. Brout, Think Systems Corporation
Session 1C Chair: Robert Jacob, Sprint
Session Title: CHOICES FOR LONG DISTANCE CARRIERS 40A Using Tobit Regression To Analyze Consumer Churn Among Long Distance Carriers [PowerPoint] [PDF]
R. Bruce Williamson and Jain-Shing Chen, SBC Communications, Inc.
40B Modeling Consumer "Spells" with Long Distance Carriers [PowerPoint] [PDF]
R. Bruce Williamson, John S. Watters, and Basile Goungetas, SBC Communications, Inc.
53 Will Your Customers Today Be Your Customers Tomorrow
Robert Ceurvorst and Susan Robinson, Market Facts
12:00PM - 1:30PM LUNCH - provided
1:30PM - 2:30PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS Session 2A Chair: Yvonne Wells, Bell South
Session Title: IMPROVED TECHNIQUES FOR UNDERSTANDING THE CUSTOMER 14 Market Segmentation Analysis
Krzysztof Dzieciolowski,Bell Canada
16 Societal And Economic Trends As A Source For The Identification Of New Telecommunication Markets - A New Demand Oriented Forecasting Paradigm
Rainer Koenig, Deutsche Telekom AG
Session 2B Chair: Farhad Sabetan, Pacific Bell
Session Title: OPTIMAL TARIFF DEMAND 5 Discrete-Choice Analysis of Optional Tariff Demand Characteristics in Germany
[Word: Title Page, Tables, ICFC Presentation, Paper]
[PDF: Title Page, Tables, ICFC Presentation, Paper]Dieter Elixmann, WIK
Session 2C Chair: John Watters, SBC
Session Title: NEW RESEARCH IN TOLL DEMAND 21 A Pattern of Inter-regional Toll Demand: Korean Case [Word] [PDF]
Yongkyu Kim, Myeongho Lee, and Mr. Yong-Sub Yum
Korea Information Society Development Institute (KISDI)
38 Competitive Own and Cross-Price Elasticitities in the intraLATA Toll Market [Word] [PDF]
Donald J. Kridel, University of Missouri, St. Louis
Paul N. Rappoport, Temple University
Lester D. Taylor, University of Arizona
3:00PM - 4:00PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS Session 3A Chair: Melody Cole, Bellcore
Session Title: INTERNET ACCESS IN THE RESIDENTIAL MARKET: ESTIMATING DEMAND AND IMPACT 39 The Demand for Access to Online Services and the Internet
Donald J. Kridel, University of Missouri, St. Louis
Paul N. Rappoport, Temple University
Lester D. Taylor, University of Arizona
46 The Impact of The Internet on The Demand for Residential Local Access Lines
[Powerpoint : Variable Definitions, Presentation]
[PDF : Variable Definitions, Presentation]
Mohammed B. Abrar, Bell Canada
Session 3B Chair: Dieter Elixmann, WIK
Session Title: FORWARD-LOOKING BANDWIDTH SUPPLY AND DEMAND ISSUES 26 Telecoms Traffic Forecasting - The Need for Speed [PowerPoint] [PDF]
Ian Hall & Fraser Burton, BT Labs, UK
28 Forecasts and Risk Analysis of PNO and CATV Operators by Introducing Broadband Upgrades in the Access Network [Word] [PDF]
Kjell Stordahl, Leif Aarthun Ims, Borgar Torre Olsen, Telenor Network AS
Session 3C Chair: David Pitcher,
Bell Atlantic
Session Title: ECONOMICS MEETS REGULATION: PRODUCTIVITY AND PROXY MODELS 12 Productivity, Input Prices and Price Caps in Telecommunications [PowerPoint] [PDF]
Judi Bodnar, Bell Canada
4:00PM - 5:00PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS Session 4A Chair: Trent Appelbe
Bell Canada
Session Title: PENETRATION : BASIC ACCESS VERSUS SATIATION 29 Affordability of Telephone Service: A New Model
for Improving Telephone Penetration Rates
Eleanor K. Murray, Field Research Corporation
30 Limits To Growth In Telecom Markets? [Word] [PDF]
Jan-Petter Saether, Norwegian Telecommunications Authority
Session 4B Chair: Dieter Elixmann
WIK
Session Title: ANALYZING RESIDENTIAL DEMAND FOR COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES 49 Residential Customer Demand for Complex Telecommunications Packages [PowerPoint] [PDF]
B. Goungetas and J. Watters, SBC Communications Inc.
52 Segmentation Clusters of Additional Line Households
William Serad, PNR
William Newman, PNR
Paul Rappoport, Temple University
Session 4C Chair: Peter Chung
GTE
Session Title: ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS 41 Forecasting With Artificial Neural Networks
[Word] [PDF]Stuart McMenamin, Regional Economic Research, Inc.
56 Who's Calling Whom? Modeling Social Networks and Long Distance Telephone Demand
Erik Heitfield, UC Berkeley
June 26 (THURSDAY)
7:30AM - 5:00PM REGISTRATION 8:30AM - 10:00AM KEYNOTE SPEECH - "Telecommunications: A Wall Street Perspective" Peter Darbee, Chief Financial Officer and Controller, Pacific Bell
10:30AM - 12:00Noon TOWN MEETING: "MERGER MANIA" This Town Meeting will be moderated by Robert E. Stoffels, the former editor of "America's Network" the industry's leading technology-focused trade publication.
Panelists:
Peter Darbee
CFO
Pacific Bell
James G. Melonas
Bell Atlantic Integration Control Team Leader
Bell Atlantic
Wayne Graham
Senior Manager, Financial Planning & Reporting,
PTI Communications, Inc.12:00Noon - 1:30PM LUNCH - provided
1:30PM - 2:30PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS Session 5A Chair: Keith Bhatia
Nokia
Session Title: FORECASTING IN WIRELESS FOR PRODUCTS AND POSITION 54 Technological Substitution in a Wireless Communications Environment
Keith Bhatia, Nokia
43 Market Forecasting of CDMA Commercialization in Korea
Dr. Seung Hee Choi, ETRI, Korea
Session 5B Chair: Rod Richardson
US West
Session Title: THE UNEXPECTED IN FORECASTING: INHERITED ERROR AND CREATED OPPORTUNITIES 32 Forecasting Tertiary Telecommunications Market Opportunities [PDF]
James Shaw, University of San Francisco
37 Who Can You Trust? Using the Best Macroeconomic Forecasts
David G. Loomis, Illinois State University
Session 5C Chair: John F. Brown, NYNEX
Session Title: CRADDLE AND GRAVE MARKET ANALYSIS 24 Diffusion Pattern of Telex Service in KOREA
[Word] [PDF]Kyung Hwan Cho, Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute
48 A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Target Market Potential with Limited Geodemographic Information,
Daniel S. Putler, Purdue University and University of British Columbia
Kirthi Kalyanam, Santa Clara University
James S. Hodges, University of Minnesota
3:00PM - 4:00PM CONCURRENT SESSION Session 6A Chair: Rod Richardson,
US West
Session Title: TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND FORECASTING ON THE INTERNET 36 What's New on the Internet in Telecommunications and Forecasting? [PowerPoint] [PDF]
David G. Loomis, Illinois State University
Session 6B Chair: Betty Nordaas
Bell Atlantic
Session Title: IMPROVED FORECASTING & ANALYSIS EMPLOYING DATA BASE SOLUTIONS 2 RevSys - A Database Solution To Forecasting Consolidation & Reporting [PowerPoint] [PDF]
J. Brown - NYNEX
13 Network Information Management: The Tool for Success in the Ever Growing Telecommunication Market
David Brogdon, Bear Creek Technologies
4:00PM - 5:00PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS Session 7A Chair: Chris Dineen
Bell Canada
Session Title: CHALLENGES TO FORECASTING DUE TO REGULATORY AND MARKET EVOLUTION 23 Future Challenges Facing China's New Telecommunications Entrant: A S.W.O.T Analysis Of 'China Unicom'
Xu Yan, Douglas C. Pitt, Niall Levine, Strathclyde Business School, UK
55 An Analysis of the Effects of Exchange Access Reform on Demand Stimulation [Word] [PDF]
Charles J. Zarkadas and Augustine J. Ros, NERA
Session 7B Chair: Ron Luginbill
Ameritech
Session Title: CUSTOMER CHOICES FOR NEW SERVICES 6 Enhancing Consumer Choice Models Through Application
of In-depth Analysis Of Behavioral Drivers
[PowerPoint] [PDF]Doug Clark, Director - Southwestern Bell Communications, Inc.
31 Analysis of Customer Expectations for the Introduction of New Telecommunications [Word] [PDF]
Dr. Ing. Bartolomeo Sapio & Isabella Maria Palumbino
Fondazione Ugo Bordino
Session 7C Chair: Kent Bjornstad
Bell Atlantic
Session Title: THE INTERNET: DEMAND, TELEPHONY IMPACT & COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT 8 Quantifying the Effect of Internet Telephony From Both Telecommunications and Internet Service Provider Perspectives [PowerPoint] [PDF]
Nicholas J. Scalera, Louis Rubin, Bellcore
11 Innovative Business Models Towards the Adoption of Wide-Scale Electronic Commerce in Business to Consumer Markets [PowerPoint] [PDF]
Prof. dr. Rene W. Wagenaar, KPN Research
June 27 (Friday)
7:30AM - 11:00AM REGISTRATION 9:00AM - 10:30AM TOWN MEETING on the INTERNET This Town Meeting will be moderated by Padmanabhan Srinagesh, Principal, Charles River Associates, Incorportated.
Panelists:
Professor Hal Varian, Dean, School of Information Management and Systems, UC Berkeley
Professor Lester Taylor, Professor of Economics and Professor of Agriculture and Natural Resource Economics, University of Arizona
Craig Partridge, Senior Scientist, BBN Corporation and Adjunct Faculty, Computer Science, Stanford University
Milo Medin, Vice President, Networks Systems, @Home
11:00AM - 12:30PM FREE TUTORIALS Telecommunications Forecasting Survey Design And Analysis
Dr. John Colias of the M/A/R/C Group
Neural Networks And Demand Forecasting
Dr. Richard Hoptroff of Right Information Systems