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ICFC 1997
CONFERENCE PROGRAM
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TUESDAY, JUNE 9 12:00PM-6:00PM Registration and Information
Foyer A4:00PM-5:00PM Planning Committee Meeting
Missouri Pacific6:00PM-8:30PM Reception/Dinner
Grand Ballroom B & C
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 10 7:00AM-5:00PM Registration and Information
Foyer A7:15AM-8:00AM Continental Breakfast
Foyer A8:00AM-10:00AM Opening General Session/Keynote Address
Grand Ballroom A & B"Liberalizing Telecommunications Markets: Is the U.S. Still Leading the Way?"
Robert W. Crandall
Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, Brookings Institution10:00AM-10:30AM Mid Morning Break
Foyer A10:30AM-12:00PM Concurrent Sessions
1. Session Title: Demand for Additional Lines and Wireless Competition
Session Chair: Peter Chung, GTEDemand for and Use of Additional Lines by Residential Customers
Carol Cassel, PNR and Associates, Inc. [Powerpoint] [PDF]
U.S. Premises Wireless Forecast
Bernard J. Paniak, Lucent Technologies Inc. [Powerpoint] [PDF]Grand Ballroom A
2. Session Title: Universal Service in the International Arena
Session Chair: Badri Elosta, ICG TelecomMaintaining Affordable Telephone Service in Canada
D.L. Solvason, Stentor Resource Centre Inc. [Powerpoint] [PDF]An Economic Theory for Telecommunications Universal Service
William (Dick) Meyer [Word] [PDF]The Diffusion of Universal Service in a Competitive Environment-The Case for Global USO!
JanPetter Saether, Telenor Nett AS,
Halvor Nafstad, Norwegian Post and Telecommunications AuthorityGrand Ballroom B
12:00PM-1:30PM Luncheon
Grand Hall
1:30PM-2:30PM Concurrent Sessions1. Session Title: Forecasting In Competitive Markets
Session Chair: Rod Richardson, US WestThe Successful Integration of WIN NT ClientServer, WEB, And Relational Technologies As Solutions To The Forecasting Opportunities Offered by Deregulation and Competition
James Meador, GTE [Word] [PDF] [JPG]Allocation of Competitive Loss in the Wire Center
Ron Luginbill, Ameritech [Powerpoint] [PDF]Grand Ballroom A
2. Session Title: Econometric Methods for Telecommunications Demand
Session Chair: Jain-Shing Chen, SBC CommunicationsUsage Sensitive Study of Auto Redial and Call Return: An Application of the Seemingly Unrelated Poission Regression Model
Anderson Reynolds, SBC Communication Inc.Parametric vs. Semi-Parametric Estimation of Demand for IntraLATA Toll
Armando Levy, North Carolina State University [PDF 1] [PDF 2] [PDF 3]Grand Ballroom B
3. Session Title: Liberalization of European Telecommunications Markets
Session Chair: Bob Jacobs, SprintAn Analysis of the Full Liberalization of the French Telecommunications Market:Beyond Market Signals
Pierre Vialle, Institut National des Telecommunications61 days of Full Competition. Some Observations from the German Market
Dr. ErnstOlav Ruhle, RWE Telliance AG [PDF]Grand Ballroom C
2:30PM-3:00PM Mid Afternoon Break
Foyer A3:00PM-4:00PM Concurrent Sessions
1. Session Title: Canadian Cellular
Session Chair: Peter Chung, GTEThe Canadian Cellular Telephone Industry: Birth, Evolution, and Prospects
Dustin Chodorowicz
Statistics Canada [Powerpoint] [PDF]Grand Ballroom A
2. Session Title: Phones for Farmers: What’s the Cost?
Session Chair: Melody Cole, BellcoreThe Unspoken Connection between the Definition of service Area and the Size of the New Universal Service Fund
Victor Glass, NECA [Word] [PDF] [Excel] [PDF 2] [Powerpoint] [PDF 3]Customer Location in Rural Areas: A Road Based Methodology
Kevin T. Duffy Deno, Ph.D., INDETEC International [Word] [PDF] [ZIP of maps]Grand Ballroom B
4:00PM-5:00PM Concurrent Sessions
1. Session Title: On Ramp to the Information Superhighway
Session Chair: Rod Richardson, US WestInternet and the Small and Medium Firms
Benedicte Branchet, ENSTBretagneAn Econometric Study of the Demand for Access to the Internet
Donald J. Kridel, University of Missouri-St Louis;
Paul N. Rappoport, Temple University;
Lester D. Taylor, University of ArizonaGrand Ballroom B
3. Session Title: Reducing Diffusion Confusion
Session Chair: Ron Luginbill, AmeritechNetwork, Technology Diffusion, Product Markets and Strategic Behaviours: The Example of Banking Cards System Diffusion Within the Private Banking Sector in Poland
Forecasting New Telecommunication Services at a "Predevelopment" Product State by Combining Generic Consumer Data with Judgmental Input
Oliver Epinette, Institut National des Telecommunications [Powerpoint] [PDF]
Andreas Taschner, Anke Schmietainski,
Alcatel Telecom Research Division, Location Stuttgart(Germany) [Powerpoint] [PDF]Grand Ballroom C
THURSDAY, JUNE 11 7:00AM-1:30PM Registration
Foyer A7:15AM-8:00AM Continental Breakfast
Foyer A
8:00AM-10:00AM Opening General Session/Keynote Address
Grand Ballroom A & B"Internet and the World Wide Web: Business, Political and Policy Implications for the Next Millennium"
Dr. Alan Pearce
President, Information Age Economics, Inc.10:00AM-10:30AM Mid Morning Break
Foyer A10:30AM-12:00PM Concurrent Sessions
1. Session Title: Going Mobile: New Markets, New Services
Session Chair: Don Kridel, University of MissouriCompetition in Chinese Cellular Market: A Survey
Xu Yan, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology [Powerpoint] [PDF]Mobile Data Solution: A Simultaneous Choice Analysis
JainShing Chen, Phil Clark, and John Watters,
SBC Communications [Word] [PDF]Grand Ballroom A
2. Session Title: Outfoxing Stigler: Can Regulation Promote Competition?
Session Chair: Bernard Paniak, Lucent TechnologiesThe Transition to Competition in Telecommunications and Its Implications for the Electric Utility Industry
Bruce L. Egan, INDETEC International and
Columbia University
Stanford L. Levin, Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville [Word] [PDF]Protecting Competition: Price Floors and Terms of Access to Competitors’ Facilities,
Paul J. Hinton and J. Douglas Zona, NERA [Powerpoint] [PDF] [Word] [PDF]
Grand Ballroom B12:00PM-1:30PM Luncheon
Grand Hall1:30PM-2:30PM Concurrent Sessions
1. Session Title: Call Me - After 5
Session Chair: Anderson Reynolds, SBC CommunicationsAnalyzing Peak and Off Peak in Mobile Communications
Michael Berlage, EUTELIS CONSULT [Powerpoint] [PDF]Promotion Effects on Calling Patterns and Usage of the Residential Toll Service: A Discrete Choice Model
Bosang Lee, Cornell University [Word 1] [PDF 1] [Word 2] [PDF 2]Grand Ballroom A
3. Session Title: Impacts of Universal Service
Session Chair: Don Kridel, University of MissouriAn Estimate of Current Universal Service Obligations and the Likely Impact of Federal and State Universal Service Plans
Aniruddha Banerjee, Agustin J. Ros and Neil Zoltowski, NERA [Powerpoint] [PDF]Proxy Models and Universal Service Funding Their Impact on Pricing, Demand and Competition
James Stegeman, INDETEC InternationalGrand Ballroom B
2:30PM-3:00PM Mid Afternoon Break
Foyer A3:00PM-4:00PM Concurrent Sessions
1. Session Title: So Many Prices, So Little Time
Session Chair: George Ford, MCIDial Around: Winners and Losers
John Schiela, PNR and Associates, Inc. [Powerpoint] [PDF]Impact of Large Price Changes and Competition on IntraLATA Toll: A California Example
Ronita Mathias and Mark Porter, GTEGrand Ballroom A
2. Session Title: Forecasting Trends in Evolving Communications Markets
Session Chair: Dieter Elixmann, WIKForecasting the Impact of Regulatory Restructuring
Ronald Partizian and Rob Warrington, Bellcore [Powerpoint] [PDF]Knowledge Discovery From Adaptive Forecasting
Howard Phillips, University of North Carolina at Charlotte
Grand Ballroom B
4:00PM-5:00PM Concurrent Sessions
1. Session Title: Data Gathering at the Local Area Level
Session Chair: Ron Luginbill, AmeritechData Acquisition at the Local Area level
J.D. Kerrick, Power EngineersForecasting Demand by Market Research
N.A. Vasquez and J.R. Ruiz,
Universidad Nacional De Education a DistanciaGrand Ballroom A
2. Session Title: Competition Stumbling Block
Session Chair: Bernard Paniak, Lucent TechnologiesTreatment of Expenses in Hybrid Telecommunications Cost Models Forecasting ARMIS Accounts
Gregory M. Duncan, Vice President,
National Economic Research Associates;
Karyn Model, Senior Analyst, National Economic
Research Associates [Powerpoint] [PDF]Looking for Lost Historical Costs at the Unbundled Network Element Level
Victor Glass, NECA [Word] [PDF] [Excel] [PDF 2]Grand Ballroom B
5:00PM-6:00PM Speaker Reception
Suite 3000/3001
FRIDAY, JUNE 12 7:15AM-8:00AM Continental Breakfast
Foyer A8:00AM-10:00AM Panel Discussion: Forecasting Process, Methods and Techniques in Other Industries
Grand Ballroom A & B"Forecasting Trends for the Financial Industry"
Howard Phillips
University of North Carolina at Charlotte"Forecasting in the Packaged Goods Industry"
Andrew Ma
Product Director, M/A/R/C [Powerpoint] [PDF]"Demand Forecasting When the Client is Marketing: Some Beverage Industry Examples"
Kevin Richardson
Group Manager, Business Modeling & Forecasting, The Minute Maid Company10:00AM-10:30AM Mid Morning Break
Foyer A10:30AM-12:00PM Tutorials
1. "Forecasting Customer Responses to Competitive Entry in Telecom"
Dr. John Colias & Andrew Ma
M/A/R/C Group [Powerpoint] [PDF]Grand Ballroom A
2. "Unlocking the Neural Network Black Box"
J. Stuart McMenamin & Frank A. Monforte
Regional Economic ResearchGrand Ballroom B
3. "Real-World Data Base Marketing"
Gene Ferruza
Customer Management ServicesNew York Central
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