1999 ICFC CONFERENCE PROGRAM

1999 ICFC CONFERENCE FINAL PROGRAM

**Copies of presentations are available to individuals who register their name and address. To register, please click here. ***

TUESDAY, JUNE 15

12:00PM-6:00PM Registration and Information
South Convention Lobby

4:00PM-5:00PM Planning Committee Meeting
TBA

6:00PM-8:30PM Reception/Dinner
South Convention Lobby

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 16

7:30AM-5:00PM Registration and Information
South Convention Lobby

7:45 AM-8:30AM Continental Breakfast
North Convention Lobby

8:30AM-10:00AM Opening General Session/Keynote Address

"The Evolution of Local Network Services"

            William J. Stewart
            Vice President - Retail Market Strategies
            US WEST

Grand Ballroom

10:00AM-10:30AM Mid Morning Break
North Convention Lobby

10:30AM-12:00PM Concurrent Sessions

1.   Session Title: Internet Forecasting: Mile High, Where’s the Peak?

Session Chair: Melody Cole, Telcordia Technology

9, IP Futures; Exploiting the Opportunities of a Data-driven Network [PowerPoint] [PDF]

         Frederic Lagacherie and Ahmed Mohamed, BT Laboratories

68, Bandwidth Growth Forecast: How to Combine Optics Trends with Demand Elasticity.

        Steven G. Lanning, Lucent Technology

58, Forecasts for Internet/Online Access

       Lawrence Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc. [PowerPoint] [PDF]

Silver Room

2. Session Title: Predicting Customer Choices: It Ain’t That Easy!

Session Chair: Bruce Williamsom, Taylor Nelson Sofres Group

16, Analysis of Local Optional Calling Plans in Korea

          Daesu Park Ph.D., Korea Telecom Management Research Lab [Word] [PDF]

38, Residential Customers' Switching Preferences and Behavior in the Telecommunications Marketplace

         Michele Heiney, PNR and Associates, Inc [PowerPoint] [PDF]

45, Using Predictive Modeling to Forecast Customer Behavior

         Chris Dineen, Eurodata Foundation [PowerPoint] [PDF]

Denver Room

3. Session Title: Interconnection Policy Impact

Session Chair: Bob Jacob, Sprint

6, The Influence of Interconnection Demand on Traffic Flows and Network Design for an Incumbent Operator - The Austrian Example [Word] [PDF] [PowerPoint] [PDF]

         Martin Merka and Manfred Nussbaumer, OFEG, Ernst-Olav Ruhle, Telekom Austria

36, Do Interconnection Policies Affect the Development of Telecommunications Competition? The Case in the U.S.

        Mark A. Jamison and Janice Hauge, University of Florida

Spruce Room

12:00PM-1:30PM Luncheon
South Convention Lobby

1:30PM-2:30PM Concurrent Sessions

1. Session Title: Bye, Bye Local Loop?

Session Chair: Keith Bhatia, ADC Newnet

48, Do Wireless and Wireline Service Compete?

           Michael Ward, University of Illinois and Glenn A. Woroch, University of California at Berkeley [PDF]

57, Wireless vs. Wireline for Voice Services: Forecasts & Impacts

            Lawrence K. Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc [PowerPoint] [PDF]

Silver Room

2. Session Title: New Technical Approaches to Forecasting

Session Chair: David Cracknell, British Telecom

27, Wholistic Forecasting in a Full-Competition-New-Paradigm Communications Environment

          Dr. Marie Balce, C&W Optus

44, Market Analysis of Advertising Effort, Brand Awareness and Share Penetration in a Recently Competitive Setting

           R. Bruce Williamson, Taylor Nelson Sofres Group; Kym Penhalf, Taylor Nelson Sofres Intersearch

Denver Room

3. Session Title: Econometric Applications in Telecommunications: Demand

Session Chair: John Watters, SBC Communications

65, The Demand for Broadband Access to the Internet [PowerPoint] [PDF]

          Lester Taylor, University of Arizona, Don Kridel University of

          Missouri, and Paul Rappoport, Temple University

28, Intra-LATA Toll Demand: Modeling Own- and Cross-Price Firm Elasticities

          Gregory M. Duncan Ph.D. and Karyn E. Model, Ph.D., NERA [PowerPoint] [PDF]

Spruce Room

2:30PM-3:00PM Mid Afternoon Break
North Convention Lobby

3:00PM-4:00PM Concurrent Sessions

1. Session Title: Market Structure in International Telecommunications

Session Chair: Dieter Elixmann, WIK

20, The New Wholesale Markets for International Minutes & Bandwidth

           Sanford Marble, Telcordia Technologies

52, Dominant Carrier Market Power in US International Telephone Markets [PDF]

          James Alleman, University of Colorado at Bouder; Gary Madden and
          Scott J. Savage, Curtin University of Technology

Silver Room

2. Session Title: Econometric Applications in Telecommunications: Market Share

Session Chair: Kent Bjornstad, Bell Atlantic

37, Predicting Small Business Market Share Using Econometric Analysis of Survey Data

         Ronita Mathias and Mark Porter, GTE [PowerPoint] [PDF]

17, Choice of International Telephone Service Carrier in Korea

         Bosang Lee and Daesoo Park, Korea Telecom [Word] [PDF]

Denver Room

3. Session Title: Forecasting Next Generation Network Applications

Session Chair: Bernard Paniak, Lucent Technologies

34, Forecast of Next Generation Network Revenue Impact

          Jiong Gong, Telcordia Technologies

47, On Forecasting the Demand for Electronic Commerce

          Michael R. Ward, University of Illinois [PDF]

Spruce Room

4:00PM-5:00PM Concurrent Sessions

1. Session Title: Demand Forecasting and Supply Chain Management

Session Chair: George Ford, MCI / Worldcom

5, Demand Forecasting and Supply Chain Management

            Charles N. Smart and Nelson S. Hartunian, Ph.D., Smart Software [PowerPoint] [PDF]

Silver Room

2. Session Title: Market Segmentation Panacea

Session Chair: Peter Chung, GTE

8, Devising a Technique for Market Segmentation

          Professor JT Buchanan, Analysys Scotland [PowerPoint] [PDF]

11, Dynamic Analytical Modelling of Individuals' Communications Requirements and Customer Segmentation Through Individuals Lifestyle Patterns [PowerPoint] [PDF]

          Jo Osborne and Ahmed Mohamed, BT Labs

Denver Room

3. Session Title: Wireless Diffusion & Evolution

Session Chair: Chris Dineen, Eurodata Foundation

24, The Evolution of the Competition in Mobile Telecommunications: The Case of Italy

          Livio Cricelli, University of Rome "Tor Vergata",

          Massimo Gastaldi,University of L'Aquila,

          Nathan Levialdi, University of Perugia [Word] [PDF]

26, A Comparison of Generalized Maximum Entropy to Traditional Estimators in a Wireless Choice Model [Word] [PDF]

          Randall C Campbell, SBC Communications

          R. Carter Hill, Louisiana State University

Spruce Room

5:00PM-6:00PM Vendor Reception
North Convention Lobby

THURSDAY, JUNE 17

7:30AM-1:30PM Registration
South Convention Lobby

7:45AM-8:30AM Continental Breakfast
North Convention Lobby

8:30AM-9:15AM Opening General Session/Keynote Address

"Market Opportunities For Emerging Communications Providers" [PowerPoint] [PDF]

            Michael Hawn
            Vice President
            ICG Telecom Group, Inc.

Grand Ballroom

9:15AM-10:00AM Keynote Address

"Implication of New Valuation Techniques on Estimation" [PDF]

            James H. Alleman
            Professor - Telecommunications Economics
            University of Colorado

Grand Ballroom

10:00AM-10:30AM Mid Morning Break
North Convention Lobby

10:30AM-12:00PM Concurrent Sessions

1. Session Title: Global Alliances & Mergers

Session Chair: George Ford, MCI/Worldcom

15, Global Telephony Alliances [PowerPoint] [PDF]

           Lorna H. Wallace (Ph.D.), Mary Murphy and George Stratis (DBA), Telcordia Technologies

35, Impacts of Mergers and Global Rivalry on Local Network Competition

          Mark A. Jamison and Janice Hauge, University of Florida

23, Modeling the Impact of Regulatory Decisions in a Dynamic Marketplace

          Michael Berlage, Eutelis Consult

Silver Room

2. Session Title: Data Tips and Techniques for Forecasters

Session Chair: Ron Luginbill, Ameritech

30, Using the Data Warehouse to Improve the Budgeting and Forecasting Process

          Anne Omrod, John Galt Development, Inc

54, Finally, Some Business Demographics for Forecasters

          David K. Pitcher, Bell Atlantic [PowerPoint] [PDF]

22, Forecasting the Residential Data-Wave [PowerPoint] [PDF]

          Ann Matthews and Ahmed Mohamed, BT Laboratories

Denver Room

3. Session Title: Challenges in Pricing and Costing

Session Chair: Don Kridel, University of Missouri

25, Pricing Bandwidth - Some Issues for an Old Monopolist

          Georg Moe and Jan-Petter Saether, Telenor Nett AS [PowerPoint] [PDF]

33, Pricing Framework for Internet Services and Applications

          Jiong Gong, Telcordia Technologies

61, The Forecasting Implications of Telecommunications Cost Models

          Timothy J. Tardiff, NERA [Word] [PDF] [PowerPoint] [PDF]

Spruce Room

12:00PM-1:30PM Luncheon
South Convention Lobby

1:30PM-2:30PM Concurrent Sessions

1. Session Title: Internet Conundrums

Session Chair: Badri Elostra, ICG Communications

53, The Internet: Market Characteristics and Regulatory Conundrums [PowerPoint] [PDF]

Aniruddha Banerjee and Agustin Ros, NERA

Silver Room

2. Session Title: Corralling the Data Problems

Session Chair: Pat Childs, BellSouth

14, Service Package Identification and Optimization

John Adolf Andrzejewski, GTE [Word] [PDF]

19, Telecommunications Modeling in the Data Warehouse World [PowerPoint] [PDF]

Daniel R. Dolk, Naval Postgraduate School and Donald J. Kridel, University of Missouri, St. Louis

Denver Room

3. Session Title: The Forecasting Challenge: Competition and Public Policy

Session Chair: Rod Richardson, U S West

13, Forecasting Challenges for Telecommunications with Local Competition

David G. Loomis, Illinois State University [PowerPoint] [PDF]

41, Integrating Public Policy Uncertainty into Planning and Forecasting Activities

D. Scott Murrie Ph.D. and Mark S. Calnon Ph.D., GTE

Spruce Room

2:30PM-3:00PM Mid Afternoon Break
North Convention Lobby

3:00PM-5:00PM Tutorials

1. Title: "Forecasting Telecommunications Brand Switching and Product Sales

With Local Competition" [PowerPoint] [PDF]

Chair: Peter Chung, GTE

           Andrew Ma and John V. Colias of M/A/R/C Research

Silver Room

2. Title: "Business Forecasting Techniques"

Chair: Ron Luginbill, Ameritech

            Eric A. Stellwagen, Business Forecast Systems, Inc

Denver Room

3. Title: "Forecasting with Neural Networks"

Chair: Bosang Lee, Korea Telecom

            Frank A. Monforte, Regional Economic Research (RER)

PowerPoint Version: [Part 1] [Part 2] [Part 3] [Part 4] [Part 5] [Part 6] [Part 7] [Part 8]

PDF Version: [Part 1] [Part 2] [Part 3] [Part 4] [Part 5] [Part 6] [Part 7] [Part 8]

Spruce Room

5:00PM-6:00PM Speaker Reception

FRIDAY, JUNE 18

7:45AM-8:30AM Continental Breakfast

8:30AM-10:00AM Opening General Session/Keynote Address

"Globalization and the Information Society: Impacts on the Economy and

Politics " [Word] [PDF]

Commissioner Martin Bangemann

Member of the European Commission

Grand Ballroom

10:00AM-10:30AM Mid Morning Break

10:30AM-12:00PM Keynote Address

"A Futuristic Look at Residential Telecommunications Demand"

            Dave Helmkamp
            Technical Manager
                        Bell Labs, Lucent Technologies

Grand Ballroom

[icfc home]

For more information about this page contact David Loomis

1.	Session Title: Internet Forecasting: Mile High, Where’s the Peak?
	Session Chair: Melody Cole, Telcordia Technology

	9, IP Futures; Exploiting the Opportunities of a Data-driven Network [PowerPoint] [PDF]
	Frederic Lagacherie and Ahmed Mohamed, BT Laboratories

	68, Bandwidth Growth Forecast: How to Combine Optics Trends with Demand Elasticity.
	Steven G. Lanning, Lucent Technology

	58, Forecasts for Internet/Online Access
	Lawrence Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc. [PowerPoint] [PDF]

	Silver Room

2.	Session Title: Predicting Customer Choices: It Ain’t That Easy!
	Session Chair: Bruce Williamsom, Taylor Nelson Sofres Group

	16, Analysis of Local Optional Calling Plans in Korea
	Daesu Park Ph.D., Korea Telecom Management Research Lab [Word] [PDF]

	38, Residential Customers' Switching Preferences and Behavior in the Telecommunications Marketplace
	Michele Heiney, PNR and Associates, Inc [PowerPoint] [PDF]

	45, Using Predictive Modeling to Forecast Customer Behavior
	Chris Dineen, Eurodata Foundation [PowerPoint] [PDF]

	Denver Room

3.	Session Title: Interconnection Policy Impact
	Session Chair: Bob Jacob, Sprint

	6, The Influence of Interconnection Demand on Traffic Flows and Network Design for an Incumbent Operator - The Austrian Example [Word] [PDF] [PowerPoint] [PDF]
	Martin Merka and Manfred Nussbaumer, OFEG, Ernst-Olav Ruhle, Telekom Austria

	36, Do Interconnection Policies Affect the Development of Telecommunications Competition? The Case in the U.S.
	Mark A. Jamison and Janice Hauge, University of Florida

	Spruce Room

1.	Session Title: Bye, Bye Local Loop?
	Session Chair: Keith Bhatia, ADC Newnet

	48, Do Wireless and Wireline Service Compete?
	Michael Ward, University of Illinois and Glenn A. Woroch, University of California at Berkeley [PDF]

	57, Wireless vs. Wireline for Voice Services: Forecasts & Impacts
	Lawrence K. Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc [PowerPoint] [PDF]

	Silver Room

2.	Session Title: New Technical Approaches to Forecasting
	Session Chair: David Cracknell, British Telecom

	27, Wholistic Forecasting in a Full-Competition-New-Paradigm Communications Environment
	Dr. Marie Balce, C&W Optus

	44, Market Analysis of Advertising Effort, Brand Awareness and Share Penetration in a Recently Competitive Setting
	R. Bruce Williamson, Taylor Nelson Sofres Group; Kym Penhalf, Taylor Nelson Sofres Intersearch

	Denver Room

3.	Session Title: Econometric Applications in Telecommunications: Demand
	Session Chair: John Watters, SBC Communications

	65, The Demand for Broadband Access to the Internet [PowerPoint] [PDF]
	Lester Taylor, University of Arizona, Don Kridel University of
	Missouri, and Paul Rappoport, Temple University

	28, Intra-LATA Toll Demand: Modeling Own- and Cross-Price Firm Elasticities
	Gregory M. Duncan Ph.D. and Karyn E. Model, Ph.D., NERA [PowerPoint] [PDF]

	Spruce Room

1.	Session Title: Market Structure in International Telecommunications
	Session Chair: Dieter Elixmann, WIK

	20, The New Wholesale Markets for International Minutes & Bandwidth
	Sanford Marble, Telcordia Technologies

	52, Dominant Carrier Market Power in US International Telephone Markets [PDF]
	James Alleman, University of Colorado at Bouder; Gary Madden and Scott J. Savage, Curtin University of Technology

	Silver Room

2.	Session Title: Econometric Applications in Telecommunications: Market Share
	Session Chair: Kent Bjornstad, Bell Atlantic

	37, Predicting Small Business Market Share Using Econometric Analysis of Survey Data
	Ronita Mathias and Mark Porter, GTE [PowerPoint] [PDF]

	17, Choice of International Telephone Service Carrier in Korea
	Bosang Lee and Daesoo Park, Korea Telecom [Word] [PDF]

	Denver Room

3.	Session Title: Forecasting Next Generation Network Applications
	Session Chair: Bernard Paniak, Lucent Technologies

	34, Forecast of Next Generation Network Revenue Impact
	Jiong Gong, Telcordia Technologies

	47, On Forecasting the Demand for Electronic Commerce
	Michael R. Ward, University of Illinois [PDF]

	Spruce Room

1.	Session Title: Demand Forecasting and Supply Chain Management
	Session Chair: George Ford, MCI / Worldcom

	5, Demand Forecasting and Supply Chain Management
	Charles N. Smart and Nelson S. Hartunian, Ph.D., Smart Software [PowerPoint] [PDF]

	Silver Room

2.	Session Title: Market Segmentation Panacea
	Session Chair: Peter Chung, GTE

	8, Devising a Technique for Market Segmentation
	Professor JT Buchanan, Analysys Scotland [PowerPoint] [PDF]

	11, Dynamic Analytical Modelling of Individuals' Communications Requirements and Customer Segmentation Through Individuals Lifestyle Patterns [PowerPoint] [PDF]
	Jo Osborne and Ahmed Mohamed, BT Labs

	Denver Room

3.	Session Title: Wireless Diffusion & Evolution
	Session Chair: Chris Dineen, Eurodata Foundation

	24, The Evolution of the Competition in Mobile Telecommunications: The Case of Italy
	Livio Cricelli, University of Rome "Tor Vergata",
	Massimo Gastaldi,University of L'Aquila,
	Nathan Levialdi, University of Perugia [Word] [PDF]

	26, A Comparison of Generalized Maximum Entropy to Traditional Estimators in a Wireless Choice Model [Word] [PDF]
	Randall C Campbell, SBC Communications
	R. Carter Hill, Louisiana State University

	Spruce Room

1.	Session Title: Global Alliances & Mergers
	Session Chair: George Ford, MCI/Worldcom

	15, Global Telephony Alliances [PowerPoint] [PDF]
	Lorna H. Wallace (Ph.D.), Mary Murphy and George Stratis (DBA), Telcordia Technologies

	35, Impacts of Mergers and Global Rivalry on Local Network Competition
	Mark A. Jamison and Janice Hauge, University of Florida

	23, Modeling the Impact of Regulatory Decisions in a Dynamic Marketplace
	Michael Berlage, Eutelis Consult

	Silver Room

2.	Session Title: Data Tips and Techniques for Forecasters
	Session Chair: Ron Luginbill, Ameritech

	30, Using the Data Warehouse to Improve the Budgeting and Forecasting Process
	Anne Omrod, John Galt Development, Inc

	54, Finally, Some Business Demographics for Forecasters
	David K. Pitcher, Bell Atlantic [PowerPoint] [PDF]

	22, Forecasting the Residential Data-Wave [PowerPoint] [PDF]
	Ann Matthews and Ahmed Mohamed, BT Laboratories

	Denver Room

3.	Session Title: Challenges in Pricing and Costing
	Session Chair: Don Kridel, University of Missouri

	25, Pricing Bandwidth - Some Issues for an Old Monopolist
	Georg Moe and Jan-Petter Saether, Telenor Nett AS [PowerPoint] [PDF]

	33, Pricing Framework for Internet Services and Applications
	Jiong Gong, Telcordia Technologies

	61, The Forecasting Implications of Telecommunications Cost Models
	Timothy J. Tardiff, NERA [Word] [PDF] [PowerPoint] [PDF]

	Spruce Room

1.	Session Title: Internet Conundrums
	Session Chair: Badri Elostra, ICG Communications

	53, The Internet: Market Characteristics and Regulatory Conundrums [PowerPoint] [PDF]
	Aniruddha Banerjee and Agustin Ros, NERA

	Silver Room

2.	Session Title: Corralling the Data Problems
	Session Chair: Pat Childs, BellSouth

	14, Service Package Identification and Optimization
	John Adolf Andrzejewski, GTE [Word] [PDF]

	19, Telecommunications Modeling in the Data Warehouse World [PowerPoint] [PDF]
	Daniel R. Dolk, Naval Postgraduate School and Donald J. Kridel, University of Missouri, St. Louis

	Denver Room

3.	Session Title: The Forecasting Challenge: Competition and Public Policy
	Session Chair: Rod Richardson, U S West

	13, Forecasting Challenges for Telecommunications with Local Competition
	David G. Loomis, Illinois State University [PowerPoint] [PDF]

	41, Integrating Public Policy Uncertainty into Planning and Forecasting Activities
	D. Scott Murrie Ph.D. and Mark S. Calnon Ph.D., GTE

	Spruce Room

1.	Title: "Forecasting Telecommunications Brand Switching and Product Sales
	With Local Competition" [PowerPoint] [PDF]
	Chair: Peter Chung, GTE
	Andrew Ma and John V. Colias of M/A/R/C Research

	Silver Room

2.	Title: "Business Forecasting Techniques"
	Chair: Ron Luginbill, Ameritech
	Eric A. Stellwagen, Business Forecast Systems, Inc

	Denver Room

3.	Title: "Forecasting with Neural Networks"
	Chair: Bosang Lee, Korea Telecom
	Frank A. Monforte, Regional Economic Research (RER)
	PowerPoint Version: [Part 1] [Part 2] [Part 3] [Part 4] [Part 5] [Part 6] [Part 7] [Part 8] PDF Version: [Part 1] [Part 2] [Part 3] [Part 4] [Part 5] [Part 6] [Part 7] [Part 8]
	Spruce Room

	*"Globalization and the Information Society: Impacts on the Economy and*
	*Politics "* [Word] [PDF]

	Commissioner Martin Bangemann
	Member of the European Commission