Survey-based forecasting will be discussed in this tutorial by examining the enhancement of traditional forecasting methods and basic principles such as incorporating brand loyalty and simulating the competitive environment. Additionally, there will be relevant examples on local competition and innovative technology.

Mr. Ma manages the M/A/R/C® Research technology and service forecasting practice. He has been instrumental in developing volumetric forecasts for clients in the high-tech and services industry. His forecasting interest and experience has been focused on durable and innovative products.

Dr. Colias designs, implements, and interprets custom quantitative research, specializing in telecommunications and related industries. His work has focused on forecasting new product/service market potential, market share analysis with competitive entry, pricing strategies, measurement of customer brand value, and development of advanced segmentation tools.

This tutorial will provide practical guidelines for using neural network models for forecasting. The mathematical constructs underlying the most commonly used neural network models will be presented, and the steps involved in developing a neural network forecasting model will be demonstrated. Parallels will be drawn between neural network and regression models, and the pros and cons of neural nets for forecasting will be discussed.

Dr. Monforte has developed neural network-based forecasting models for dozens of energy utilities, and recently authored a paper in The Energy Journal on short-term energy forecasting with neural networks.

This presentation will survey commonly used forecasting techniques emphasizing the pros and cons of each approach and explaining how each forecasting method is applied and diagnosed. The talk will cover judgmental approaches, time series methods such as exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins, and multivariate methods such as dynamic regression and event modeling. Examples using real data will be used throughout to illustrate key points.

Mr. Stellwagen is the Vice President and cofounder of Business Forecast Systems, Inc. He has consulted widely in the area of practical business forecasting and spends 30-40 days a year presenting workshops on the subject. Mr. Stellwagen is co-author of the Forecast Pro software product line and also serves as product manager.

Internationally Known Speakers

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