2000 ICFC CONFERENCE FINAL PROGRAM
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
12:00PM-6:00PM Registration and Information
Windows Pre-Function Area
6:00PM-8:00PM Reception/Dinner
Cirrus Ballroom
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
7:30AM-5:00PM Registration and Information
West Room Pre-Function Area
7:45 AM-8:30AM Continental Breakfast
West Room Pre-Function Area
8:30AM-10:00AM Opening General Session/Keynote Address
“Measuring
Success in the Future Broadband Market" [PPT]
[PDF]
Mr. David Finley
Chief Operating Officer
Telocity
Grand Ballroom B
10:00AM-10:30AM Mid Morning Break
Grand Ballroom B
10:30AM-12:00PM Concurrent Sessions
1.
Session Title: Does Wireline Have a Future?
Session Chair: Kent
Bjornstad
D o Wireless and Wireline Services
Compete? [PDF]
Glenn Woroch, University of California at Berkeley
Michael Ward, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Fariza Ahmad, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Demand Analysis and Penetration Forecasts for the Mobile Telephone Market
in the U.K. [PDF]
[PPT]
Chris Dineen, Teligen Ltd.
Profiling Multiple Wireless Phone Households
[PPT] [PDF]
Mike Roberson, SBC
Chris Antis, Claritas
West Room A
2.
Session Title: Dog Fight and Watershed in Local
Telecommunications Services
Session Chair: Peter Chung
The Impact of New Marketing Strategies on A Competitive Telecommunications
Market
Massimo Gastaldi, University of L'Aquila
Livio Cricelli, University of Rome Tor Vergata
Nathan Levialdi, University of Perugia
Competition for Local Telecommunication
Services: Forecasts and Impacts [PPT]
Larry Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc.
Consumer Trends in Telecommunications Services: Forecasts
and Impacts
[PDF]
[PPT]
Tim Trautman, TNS Telecoms
West Room B
3.
Session Title: The Macroeconomic
Analysis of Telecommunications
Session Chair: Ron Luginbill
A Detailed Segmentation of Data and Voice Communications Expenditures
by Industry and Geographic Area
[PDF]
[PPT]
Mike Raimondi, WEFA, Inc.
Forecasting Employment Effects of the Liberalization of the German Telecommunications
Market [PPT]
[PDF]
Dieter Elixmann, Wissenschaftliches Institut für Kommunikationsdienste (WIK)
Martin Distelkamp, WIK
Ulrike Schimmel, WIK
Bernd Meyer, WIK
Christian Lutz, WIK
The Examination of Convergence Clubs Using Clustering Algorithm in OECD
Telecommunications Industry
[PDF] [PPT]
Sang Sup Cho, Electronics and Telecommunications Research
Institute (ETRI)
Kyoung-Yong Jee, ETRI
Grand Ballroom B
12:00PM-1:00PM Luncheon
Fullers
1:30PM-2:30PM Concurrent Sessions
1.
Session Title: Improving Forecasting Process in a Dynamic
Market
Session Chair: Tim Raughley
“Total” Market Access Line Forecasting as a Solution to Business Planning
Problems [PPT]
[PDF] [PPT]
[PDF]
David K. Pitcher, Bell Atlantic
Philip J. Grutzmacher, Bell Atlantic
The Dynamics of Change: Business Line
Deployment Patterns in the UK [PPT][[PDF]Word]
David Cracknell, British Telecom
Sumit Majumdar, Imperial College Management School
Sangita Naik, Imperial College Management School
West Room A
2. Session Title: Models of Broadband Access
Session Chair: Mac Azuogu
Residential Demand for Broadband Access to the Internet
[PPT]
[PDF]
Kevin T. Duffy-Deno, TNS Telecoms
The Use of Choice Modeling and Geographic Autocorrelation
to Improve Forecasts of the xDSL Market Among Small Businesses [PDF]
[PPT]
Mike Morgan, M/A/R/C
West Room B
3. Session Title: Migration into New Services
Session Chair: Bosang Lee
Attrition of the Average Revenue Per User in Overlapping Telecommunication
Networks: Fact and Analysis
Hongjai Rhee, Korea Information Society Development Institute
A Model for Network Optimization of Fixed and Mobile
Wireless
[PPT]
[PDF]
Ray Hodges, Technology Futures, Inc.
Grand Ballroom B
2:30PM-3:00PM Mid Afternoon Break
Grand Ballroom B
3:00PM-4:00PM Concurrent Sessions
1. Session Title: Evolution of Broadband
Session Chair:Dieter Elixmann
Kjell Stordahl, Telenor
Nils Kristian Elnegaard, Telenor
Internet Forecasting and the Economics
of Networks [PDF] [PPT]
Gary Madden, Curtin University of Technology
Grant Coble-Neal, Curtin University of Technology
West Room A
2. Session Title: Cutting
the Cord: A New Wireless World
Session Chair: Chris Dineen
Geographic Projections of Wireless Demand [PDF]
[PPT]
Don Kridel, University of Missouri-St. Louis
Victor Potapov, Copper Key Technologies
Demand for Broadband Wireless Applications [PPT]
[PDF]
Bruce Williamson, TNS Telecoms
Jain-Shing Chen, TNS Telecoms
West Room B
3. Session Title: Societal Impacts
of New Technology
Session Chair: Bob Jacob
A Cache Based Society [PPT]
[PDF]
Mike Chartier, Intel Corporation
Predicting Internet Attacks: On Developing an Effective
Measurement Methodology [word]
[PDF]
William Yurcik, Illinois State University
David Loomis, Illinois State University
Alexander D. Korzyk, Idaho State
University
Grand Ballroom B
4:00PM-5:00PM Concurrent Sessions
1. Session Title: Internet Service and DSL: Who Needs
a Second Line?
Session Chair: Kent Bjornstad
Forecasting the Growth of Internet
Service Demand
Mohsen Hamodia, France Telecom
Long Distance
DSL and the Residential Demand for
Additional Phone Lines
[PPT]
[PDF]
Kevin T. Duffy-Deno, TNS Telecoms
West Room A
2.
Session Title: Competition and Market
Share in Local and Long Distance
Session Chair: Farhad Sabetan
An Analysis of Local Competition in the Japanese Telecommunications Market
[Word]
[PDF]
Masatsugu Tsuji, Osaka School of International
Public Policy
New Challenges in Forecasting the Telecommunications Demand:
RBOC Penetration into the Long Distance Market
[PPT]
[PDF]
Ahu Ozturkmen Yildirmaz, AT&T
Dilshad Khawaja, AT&T
West Room B
5:00PM-6:00PM Vendor
Reception
Grand Ballroom B
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
7:30AM-1:30PM Registration
Grand Ballroom B
7:45AM-8:30AM Continental Breakfast
Grand Ballroom B
8:30AM-10:00AM Opening General Session/Keynote Address
“The Future of Global Wireless
Markets with 3G Mobile Systems”
[PPT] [PDF]
Dr. Young-Chu Cho
Senior Marketing Director,
IMT-2000 Business Group
Korea Telecom
Grand Ballroom B
10:00AM-10:30AM Mid Morning Break
Grand Ballroom B
10:30AM-12:00PM Concurrent Sessions
1. Session Title: Regulatory Issues in a Broadband
World
Session Chair: David Loomis
The Increasing Importance of Broadband Services and its Reflection in
European Telecommunications Regulation
Dr. Ernst-Olav Ruhle, Telekom
Austria
Chinese Telecommunications Industry Trends [PPT]
[PDF]
Ping Gao, University of Jyväskylä
Demand For High-Speed Services: Implications for RBOC Entry Into InterLATA
Services
[PPT] [PDF]
Timothy J. Tardiff, National
Economic Research Associates
West Room A
2. Session Title: Alternative Approaches
to Telecommunications Modeling
Session Chair: David Cracknell
A Comparison of Regression Techniques in Consumer Choice Models When
the Dependent Variable Is a Count [Word]
[PDF]
Modeling Consumers as Individuals
- an Approach for a Complex Market
David Collings, British Telecom
Iqbal Adjali, British Telecom
Michael Lyons, British Telecom
Switching Behavior in Korean Telecommunication Marketplace
[PPT]
[PDF]
Daesu Park, Korea Telecom
West Room B
3. Session Title: Digital Divide: Myth
or Reality?
Session Chair: Tim Raughley
Tim Brennan, University of Maryland,
Baltimore County
Community Networking In A Rural University Town: A Case Study In Connectivity
[PPT] [PDF]
Judy D. Boggess, Cornell University
Grand Ballroom B
12:00PM-1:00PM Luncheon
Fullers
1:30PM-2:30PM Concurrent Sessions
1.
Session Title: Econometric Models of Broadband Access
Session Chair: Penny Blankfield
Econometric Analysis of the Broadband Internet
Access Market [PPT]
[PDF]
Bosang Lee, Korea Telecom
Econometric Model of Business High Capacity Access to the Internet
Lester Taylor, University of Arizona
Don Kridel, University of Missouri-St. Louis
Paul Rappoport, TNS Telecoms
West Room A
2.
Session Title: Convergence and Substitution in a
Telecommunications
Market
Session Chair: Ahmed Mohamed
Demand Forecasting for New or Rapidly Changing Product Lines in the Telecommunications
Industry
Anup K. Gupta, 3P Software
Forecast for New Service Subscriptions with Growth and Substitution Phenomena
[PPT]
[PDF]
Kyung Hwan Cho, Hyechon College
Myung Hwan Rim, Electronics and Telecommunications
Research
West Room B
3.
Session Title: Market Segmentation and PolicyScenarios
Session Chair: David Loomis
Business Customers Segmentation for Incumbent Telcos
in a Liberalized Market [Word]
[PDF]
Walter Saettone, Telefonica de Argentina
Policy Scenarios: How to Finetune Static and Dynamic
Considerations [PDF]
Matthew Bennett, CPB, The Netherlands Bureau for Economic
Policy Analysis
Paul de Bijl, CPB, The Netherlands Bureau for Economic
Policy Analysis
Marcel Canoy, CPB, The Netherlands Bureau for Economic
Policy Analysis
Grand Ballroom B
2:30PM-3:00PM Mid Afternoon Break
Grand Ballroom B
3:00PM-5:00PM Tutorials
“Resources for Forecasters”
[PPT]
[PDF]
David G. Loomis
Illinois State University
West Room A
“Customer Choice Among Telecommunications
Products and Services” [PPT]
[PDF]
Kenneth Train
University of California, Berkeley
West Room B
“An Introduction to MARS (Multivariate
Adaptive Regression Splines)”
Dan Steinberg
Salford Systems
Grand Ballroom B
5:00PM-6:00PM Speaker Reception
Cedar Room
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
7:45AM-8:30AM Continental Breakfast
West Room Pre-Function Area
8:30AM-10:00AM
Opening General Session/Keynote Address
“Principles for Telecommunications Forecasting”
[PDF]
Dr. J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania
Grand Ballroom B
10:00AM-12:00PM Keynote Address
“Broadband Networking: Bandwidth Everywhere? The Trick is Getting It Where It’s
Needed” [PPT]
[PDF]
Mr. Ray Horak
The Context Corporation
Grand Ballroom B
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