ICFC 2000
Convergence of New Technologies and Market Dynamics: Forecasting,
Economics and Marketing for the Communications Revolution
TUTORIALS
An
Introduction To MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines)
Resources
for Forecasters
Customer Choice Among Telecommunication
Products and Services
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Tutorial 1: An Introduction To MARS (Multivariate Adaptive
Regression Splines)
An introduction to the next generation of regression modeling. MARS is a new high-speed
regression tool that automatically selects variables, transforms them, and detects
interactions, with remarkable results. The results are plainly displayed in clear graphics
and programming code to reproduce the model in other packages is generated for every model
fit. In this seminar you will learn:
- why MARS works - its underlying methodology
- how to plan and execute MARS analyses
- how to refine models using key control parameters
- how to use MARS to improve your existing models
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Instructor: Dan Steinberg, Ph.D. President and Founder,
Salford Systems
Dan Steinberg has over 20 years of experience in data mining and statistical
consultation. Steinberg, who received his Ph.D. in Econometrics from Harvard University,
has served on the technical staff (MTS) at AT&T Bell Laboratories, as Assistant
Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego, and as a consultant for
numerous Fortune 100 clients. In addition to publishing articles in statistical,
econometric, computer science, and marketing journals, he has developed a series of
advanced statistical-analysis programs for Salford Systems.
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Tutorial 2: Resources for Forecasters
This tutorial will survey the best resources for telecommunications forecasters to use
in their work. We will do a review of the best Web sites including resources for news,
organizations, data and on-line tutorials. We will also review forecasting books to see
which are most useful for practitioners. Finally, we will review journals and important
articles in the field of forecasting. Everyone should leave this tutorial better informed
and equipped to forecast.
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Instructor: David G. Loomis, Ph. D. , Chair of the ICFC
conference
David G. Loomis is Chair of the ICFC conference and Assistant Professor of Economics at
Illinois State University, where he teaches in the Master's program in electricity,
natural gas and telecommunications economics. He is co-editor of The Future of the
Telecommunications Industry: Forecasting and Demand Analysis with Lester Taylor (Kluwer,
1999). Dr. Loomis is also the Co-Director of the Institute for Regulatory Policy Studies.
Before teaching at Illinois State, Dr. Loomis worked for 12 years as a research economist
at Bell Atlantic in Philadelphia focusing on issues of forecasting and demand analysis.
Dr. Loomis received his Ph.D. in Economics at Temple University in Philadelphia. He
received a University Outstanding Teaching Initiative Award at ISU in 1999.
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Tutorial 3: Customer Choice Among Telecommunication Products
and Services
Different customers look for different features when choosing among products. We show
how mixed logit models are used to determine the importance that different customers place
on product attributes. The models estimate the distribution of preferences among
customers, as well as the preferences of each sampled customer. The customer-specific
estimates are valuable for targeted marketing, where products and promotional campaigns
are matched to the appropriate customers. The distribution of customers' preferences is
important for designing new products and forecasting market shares.
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Instructor: Kenneth Train, Professor, Chair of the
Center for Regulatory Policy at the University of California, Berkeley
Professor Kenneth Train is Chair of the Center for Regulatory Policy at the University
of California, Berkeley, where he teaches econometrics and industrial organization. He
also serves as Vice President of the National Economic Research Associates. A leading
expert on customer choice analysis, he has published two books and over fifty articles,
has consulted to numerous private firms especially in telecommunications, and has served
as an expert witness in litigation and regulatory proceedings. His website at
http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~train contains free software for estimation of mixed logits,
several recent articles, and other relevant information.
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For more information about this page contact David Loomis |
