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The Future of the Telecommunications Industry:

Forecasting and Demand Analysis

David G. Loomis, Lester D. Taylor
Hardbound, ISBN 0-7923-8667-1, October 1999

TOPICS IN REGULATORY ECONOMICS AND POLICY
Volume 33

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The aim of this book, Future of the Telecommunications Industry: Forecasting and Demand Analysis, is to describe leading research in the area of empirical telecommunications demand analysis and forecasting in the light of tremendous market and regulatory changes. Its purpose is to educate the reader about how traditional analytic techniques can be used to assess new telecommunications products and how new analytic techniques can better address existing products. The research presented focuses on new products such as Internet access and additional lines and new techniques such as hazard modeling, adaptive forecasting and neural networks.

The scope of this volume includes new telecommunications products, new analytical techniques, and a review of market changes in the US and other countries. Some of the most critical questions facing the industry are addressed here, such as the impact of competition, customer churn, rate re-balancing, and early assessment of new products. The research includes a variety of different countries, products and analytic tools.

Contents and Contributors

Chapter Chapter Title Author

List of Contributors

Acknowledgements

1. Introduction D.G. Loomis

Part I: Demand for New Products and Trends in Demand Analysis.

2. Telecommunications Demand Analysis in Transition: An Overview of Part I; L.D. Taylor

3. An Econometric Study of the Demand for Access to the Internet; D.J. Kridel, et al.

4. Demand for and Use of Additional Lines by Residential Customers; C.A. Cassel

5. The Changing Market for Inland and International Calls; D. Cracknell

6. Demand Modeling at Bell Canada: A Retrospective; C. Dineen, M. Abrar

7. Effects of Large Price Reductions on Toll and Carrier Access Demand in California; T.J. Tardif.

8. Semi-Parametric Estimates of Intra-Lata Demand Elasticities; A. Levy

Part II: Forecasting New Products and the Impact of Competition

9. An Overview of Part II; D.G. Loomis

10. Forecasting New Telecommunication Services at a 'Pre-Development' Product Stage; A. Taschner

11. Analysis of Customer Expectations for the Introduction of New Telecommunications Services; I.M. Palombini,
B. Sapio

12. Limits to Growth in Telecom Markets? J.-P. Saether

13. Forecasting Telephony Demand Against a Background of Major Structural Change; D. Cracknell,
C. Mason

14. 161 Days of Full Competition – Some Observations from the German Market; E.-O. Ruhle

15. Competition in the Chinese Cellular Market: Promise and Problematic; X. Yan, D.C. Pitt.

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	The Future of the Telecommunications Industry: Forecasting and Demand Analysis David G. Loomis, Lester D. Taylor Hardbound, ISBN 0-7923-8667-1, October 1999
	TOPICS IN REGULATORY ECONOMICS AND POLICY Volume 33 Order Form
The aim of this book, Future of the Telecommunications Industry: Forecasting and Demand Analysis, is to describe leading research in the area of empirical telecommunications demand analysis and forecasting in the light of tremendous market and regulatory changes. Its purpose is to educate the reader about how traditional analytic techniques can be used to assess new telecommunications products and how new analytic techniques can better address existing products. The research presented focuses on new products such as Internet access and additional lines and new techniques such as hazard modeling, adaptive forecasting and neural networks. The scope of this volume includes new telecommunications products, new analytical techniques, and a review of market changes in the US and other countries. Some of the most critical questions facing the industry are addressed here, such as the impact of competition, customer churn, rate re-balancing, and early assessment of new products. The research includes a variety of different countries, products and analytic tools.

Contents and Contributors
Chapter	Chapter Title	Author
	List of Contributors
	Acknowledgements
1.	Introduction	D.G. Loomis
Part I: Demand for New Products and Trends in Demand Analysis.
2.	Telecommunications Demand Analysis in Transition: An Overview of Part I;	L.D. Taylor
3.	An Econometric Study of the Demand for Access to the Internet;	D.J. Kridel, et al.
4.	Demand for and Use of Additional Lines by Residential Customers;	C.A. Cassel
5.	The Changing Market for Inland and International Calls;	D. Cracknell
6.	Demand Modeling at Bell Canada: A Retrospective;	C. Dineen, M. Abrar
7.	Effects of Large Price Reductions on Toll and Carrier Access Demand in California;	T.J. Tardif.
8.	Semi-Parametric Estimates of Intra-Lata Demand Elasticities;	A. Levy
Part II: Forecasting New Products and the Impact of Competition
9.	An Overview of Part II;	D.G. Loomis
10.	Forecasting New Telecommunication Services at a 'Pre-Development' Product Stage;	A. Taschner
11.	Analysis of Customer Expectations for the Introduction of New Telecommunications Services;	I.M. Palombini, B. Sapio
12.	Limits to Growth in Telecom Markets?	J.-P. Saether
13.	Forecasting Telephony Demand Against a Background of Major Structural Change;	D. Cracknell, C. Mason
14.	161 Days of Full Competition – Some Observations from the German Market;	E.-O. Ruhle
15.	Competition in the Chinese Cellular Market: Promise and Problematic;	X. Yan, D.C. Pitt.